Trump’s 2025 tax law and tariffs make the poorest nine-tenths worse off. The only income group that gains is the richest tenth: +$7,900 a year.

Average annual change in household resources, 2026–2034 — Yale Budget Lab.

Top 1% · law alone≈ +$75,000
Top 0.1% · law alone≈ +$300,000
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The striped bars use a different measure — the 2025 law alone — but every bar below uses the same dollar scale. Scroll right →

Poorest 10%−$2,700
10–20%−$1,900
20–30%−$1,700
30–40%−$1,400
40–50%−$1,300
50–60%−$1,200
60–70%−$1,000
70–80%−$800
80–90%−$300
Richest 10%+$7,900
Striped bars below are a different measure: the top 1% and top 0.1% tax cut from the 2025 law alone, not the combined deciles above.
Top 1%≈ +$75,000
Top 0.1% ($5M+)≈ +$300,000
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Decile bars: Yale Budget Lab, combined effects of the 2025 law and 2025 tariffs, average change in household resources per year, 2026–2034 (August 2025 estimates; tariff rates have shifted since — the shape has not). Top 1% / 0.1% bars: Tax Policy Center, average 2026 tax change from the law alone — a different measure, marked with hatching. And none of this counts the interest on the borrowing that paid for it — $970 billion a year, money spent servicing debt, not on anything.

The Real Steal — the full ledger, every line sourced → therealsteal.us